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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to SEA 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model