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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 7-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model