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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 5-M.Bosher punts 29 yards to SEA 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model