Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 34 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to SEA 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for no gain (17-M.Hall). PENALTY on SEA-59-J.Forrest, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.37 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model