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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 81

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Atlanta Falcons 31

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to ATL 38, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.32 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 38, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP