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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 7-B.Walsh 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model