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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

NO
51.9%
BUF
48.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • BUF on 3 more days rest than NO
  • QB edge to NO: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.106 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.185 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
BUF 23
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NO

Kenny Vaccaro S Out Groin
Terron Armstead T Questionable Chest
Larry Warford G Questionable Abdomen

BUF

Cordy Glenn T Out Foot
Zay Jones WR Out Ankle
Seantrel Henderson T Questionable Back
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
E.J. Gaines CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 47
–
BUF 10

Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:02 FG BUF (11:02) 4-S.Hauschka 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. NO 0 – BUF 3
  • Q1 06:22 TD NO (6:22) 22-M.Ingram left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – BUF 3
  • Q2 09:08 TD NO (9:08) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – BUF 3
  • Q2 01:42 FG NO (1:42) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 17 – BUF 3
  • Q3 09:45 TD NO (9:45) 41-A.Kamara right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – BUF 3
  • Q3 08:29 TD NO (8:29) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-21-J.Poyer, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. NO 30 – BUF 3
  • Q3 00:33 TD NO (:33) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: T.Armstead. NO 36 – BUF 3
  • Q4 04:58 FG NO (4:58) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 40 – BUF 3
  • Q4 03:12 TD NO (3:12) 33-T.Edmunds left end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 46 – BUF 3
  • Q4 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short right to 84-N.O'Leary for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 1 yd. into end zone. NO 47 – BUF 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (11:02) 4-S.Hauschka 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 77%

    (7:46) 22-M.Ingram up the middle to BUF 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Poyer).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:03) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to NO 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 45 for 9 yards (44-D.Lacey).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:59) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to NO 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn to BUF 48 for 10 yards (35-M.Tolbert).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to NO 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:42) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to NO 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn to NO 28 for no gain (44-D.Lacey).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:07) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to NO 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn to NO 22 for 10 yards (44-D.Lacey). Return credited to NO 12 (spot of foul). PENALTY on NO-21-D.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at NO 12.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:30) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to NO 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn to NO 27 for no gain (14-J.Webb; 58-M.Milano).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 59%

    (7:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to BUF 33 for 5 yards (20-S.Wright). Caught near sideline at BUF 33.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%

    (4:58) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 42-P.DiMarco right tackle to BUF 44 for no gain (57-A.Okafor; 25-R.Bush).