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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 14 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model