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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 37 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to BUF 33 for 5 yards (20-S.Wright). Caught near sideline at BUF 33.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.45 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model