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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to NO 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP