Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

(13:59) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to NO 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn to BUF 48 for 10 yards (35-M.Tolbert).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.81 EP
59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model