Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 3 – New Orleans Saints 37

(14:30) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to NO 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn to NO 27 for no gain (14-J.Webb; 58-M.Milano).

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model