4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 22-M.Ingram up the middle to BUF 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.82 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model