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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 3 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to NO 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn to NO 28 for no gain (44-D.Lacey).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.49 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model