4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

CIN
35.4%
TEN
64.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): -0.046 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 19
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CIN

Jeremy Hill RB Out Ankle
Kevin Minter LB Out Elbow
Pat Sims DT Out Calf
Shawn Williams S Doubtful Hamstring
Randy Bullock K Questionable Back

TEN

Quinton Spain G Out Toe
Brynden Trawick S Questionable Neck
Delanie Walker TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 20
–
TEN 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:00 TD TEN (8:00) 29-D.Murray right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 04:50 TD CIN (4:50) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 11-B.LaFell for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – TEN 7
  • Q2 05:12 TD TEN (5:12) 29-D.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – TEN 13
  • Q2 01:46 TD CIN (1:46) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – TEN 14
  • Q2 00:02 FG TEN (:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. CIN 13 – TEN 17
  • Q4 05:14 TD CIN (5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – TEN 17
  • Q4 00:42 TD TEN (:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 29-D.Murray for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-C.Lawson]. CIN 20 – TEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:32) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (1:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to TEN 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-16-C.Core.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%

    (8:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:08) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to CIN 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 24-A.Jones pushed ob at TEN 46 for 23 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (11:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to CIN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 24-A.Jones to CIN 26 for 11 yards (53-D.Bates).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:46) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 18 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (6:19) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to CIN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 30 for 15 yards (14-E.Weems). PENALTY on CIN-40-B.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:45) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 35 for 9 yards (50-J.Evans).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:57) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to TEN 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 29 for 5 yards (46-C.Harris).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (8:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:03) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 26 for 3 yards (16-C.Core).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:59) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 66 yards to CIN 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 18 for 7 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 78 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 25-G.Bernard pushed ob at CIN 37 for 15 yards (55-J.Brown). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.