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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(11:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to CIN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 24-A.Jones to CIN 26 for 11 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.46 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP