Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Tennessee Titans 17

(4:45) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 35 for 9 yards (50-J.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.36 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model