Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 25-G.Bernard pushed ob at CIN 37 for 15 yards (55-J.Brown). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.19 EP
71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -1.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP