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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model