Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(6:19) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to CIN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 30 for 15 yards (14-E.Weems). PENALTY on CIN-40-B.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.95 EP
77% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model