Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Tennessee Titans 7

(14:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to TEN 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-16-C.Core.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.81 EP
58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model