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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Monday 2017-10-23 · 20:30 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

WAS
42.2%
PHI
57.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.198 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • PHI on 3 more days rest than WAS
  • WAS defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

WAS

Tyler Catalina G Out Concussion
Josh Norman CB Out Rib
Ty Nsekhe T Out Core Muscle
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Knee
Deshazor Everett S Questionable Hamstring
Mason Foster LB Questionable Shoulder
Rob Kelley RB Questionable Ankle
Stefan McClure S Questionable Knee
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee

PHI

Jordan Hicks LB Questionable Calf
Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Hamstring
Wendell Smallwood RB Questionable Knee
Ronald Darby CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 24
–
PHI 34

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:22 FG WAS (11:22) 6-N.Rose 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 13:19 FG PHI (13:19) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. WAS 3 – PHI 3
  • Q2 09:20 TD WAS (9:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-C.Thompson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – PHI 3
  • Q2 03:29 TD PHI (3:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 10-M.Hollins for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 9
  • Q2 00:26 TD PHI (:26) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 16
  • Q3 09:49 TD PHI (9:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 30-C.Clement for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 23
  • Q3 00:48 TD WAS (:48) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 86-J.Reed for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – PHI 24
  • Q4 11:14 TD PHI (11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 17 – PHI 30
  • Q4 06:24 FG PHI (6:24) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. WAS 17 – PHI 34
  • Q4 03:21 TD WAS (3:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 86-J.Reed for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – PHI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

    (11:22) 6-N.Rose 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 19 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (7:00) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 38-K.Barner to PHI 45 for 22 yards (84-N.Paul).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 16 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:19) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 14 for 5 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill). FUMBLES (54-K.Grugier-Hill), touched at WAS 11, recovered by WAS-38-J.Holsey at WAS 7. 38-J.Holsey to WAS 7 for no gain (24-C.Graham).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:30) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to PHI 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 38-K.Barner to PHI 20 for 10 yards (50-M.Spaight). PENALTY on PHI-33-D.McDougle, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 10.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%

    (13:19) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:26) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to WAS 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 31 for 8 yards.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:28) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:59) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to PHI 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:53) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to PHI 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:59) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 34, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 48 for 14 yards (52-N.Goode).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 84%

    (6:24) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 80%

    (1:50) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Doctson.