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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 60

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.88 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP