Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 67

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(7:00) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 38-K.Barner to PHI 45 for 22 yards (84-N.Paul).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.54 EP
76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model