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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 65

Washington Commanders 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Doctson.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -0.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP