Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 86

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Washington Commanders 10

(4:59) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 34, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 48 for 14 yards (52-N.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.23 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model