Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Washington Commanders 10

(8:26) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to WAS 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 31 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model