Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 14 for 5 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill). FUMBLES (54-K.Grugier-Hill), touched at WAS 11, recovered by WAS-38-J.Holsey at WAS 7. 38-J.Holsey to WAS 7 for no gain (24-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.18 EP
73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model