Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 58

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to PHI 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 38-K.Barner to PHI 20 for 10 yards (50-M.Spaight). PENALTY on PHI-33-D.McDougle, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model