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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 16:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CIN
39.7%
PIT
60.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CIN on 7 more days rest than PIT
  • CIN defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CIN

Tyler Boyd WR Out Knee
Ryan Hewitt TE Out Knee
Adam Jones CB Doubtful Back
John Ross WR Questionable Knee
Derron Smith S Questionable Ankle

PIT

Stephon Tuitt DE Out Back
Marcus Gilbert T Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 14
–
PIT 29

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 TD PIT (9:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 00:16 TD CIN (:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 11-B.LaFell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – PIT 7
  • Q2 12:59 TD PIT (12:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – PIT 13
  • Q2 07:16 TD CIN (7:16) 74-J.Fisher reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 81-T.Kroft for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – PIT 14
  • Q2 02:00 FG PIT (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 14 – PIT 17
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 14 – PIT 20
  • Q3 07:28 FG PIT (7:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 14 – PIT 23
  • Q3 05:33 FG PIT (5:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 14 – PIT 26
  • Q4 05:17 FG PIT (5:17) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 14 – PIT 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 35%

    (5:32) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:50) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CIN 47, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (7:16) 74-J.Fisher reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 81-T.Kroft for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:35) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:27) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%

    (7:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 73%

    (5:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 56%

    (15:00) 39-T.Watson up the middle to CIN 37 for 1 yard (36-S.Williams). Official measurement. Cincinnati challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 39-T.Watson up the middle to CIN 38 for no gain (96-C.Dunlap; 59-N.Vigil). Official measurement.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:57) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-82-C.Carter.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to CIN 36, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to PIT 45 for 19 yards (28-S.Davis).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:53) (Punt formation) 20-R.Golden pass deep right to 88-D.Heyward-Bey pushed ob at CIN 16 for 44 yards (12-A.Erickson).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (5:17) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 18-A.Green. Pressure by 50-Shazier.