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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 39-T.Watson up the middle to CIN 37 for 1 yard (36-S.Williams). Official measurement. Cincinnati challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 39-T.Watson up the middle to CIN 38 for no gain (96-C.Dunlap; 59-N.Vigil). Official measurement.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.55 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model