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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(5:17) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.88 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP