4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.96 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model