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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 29

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 18-A.Green. Pressure by 50-Shazier.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -1.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model