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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.99 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP