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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:32) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.82 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP