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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CAR
64.5%
CHI
35.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CAR: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.410 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.040 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CAR on 3 more days rest than CHI

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21
–
CHI 15
Projected margin: CAR by 6 Projected total: 36

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CAR

Demetrious Cox S Out Ankle
John Theus T Out Concussion
Fozzy Whittaker RB Out Ankle
Luke Kuechly LB Out Concussion
Kelvin Benjamin WR Questionable Knee
Kurt Coleman S Questionable Knee
Graham Gano K Questionable right Knee
Charles Johnson DE Questionable Groin
Ryan Kalil C Questionable Neck
Greg Van Roten G Questionable Shoulder

CHI

Markus Wheaton WR Out Groin
Sherrick McManis CB Doubtful Hamstring
John Timu LB Doubtful Ankle
Benny Cunningham RB Questionable Hamstring
Nick Kwiatkoski LB Questionable Chest
Hroniss Grasu C Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 3
–
CHI 17

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:15 TD CHI (9:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 27, RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 25. 39-E.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 12:42 TD CHI (12:42) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson (20-P.Amukamara) at CHI 24. 39-E.Jackson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – CHI 13
  • Q2 03:23 FG CAR (3:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – CHI 14
  • Q2 01:14 FG CHI (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CAR 3 – CHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to CHI 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 29 for 6 yards (42-C.Jones).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 16 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:01) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to CHI 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 32 for 6 yards (55-D.Mayo).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 16 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 61%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-K.Short), Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 90%

    (3:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:51) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 60 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 24 for 10 yards (58-J.Anderson).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 81%

    (6:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right tackle to CHI 24 for 1 yard (91-E.Goldman).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 48 for 18 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson). PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 49%

    (13:28) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-96-A.Hicks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 66 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-15-J.Bellamy.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:52) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to CHI 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-K.Seymour.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 36 for 7 yards (58-J.Anderson).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 28%

    (4:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to CAR 11, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 91 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:44) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to CHI 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.