Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CHI offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- QB edge to CAR: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.410 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.040 EPA/dropback
- CAR offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
- CAR defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- CAR on 3 more days rest than CHI
- Wind 15 mph
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 7
CAR
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:15 TD CHI (9:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 27, RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 25. 39-E.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – CHI 6
- Q2 12:42 TD CHI (12:42) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson (20-P.Amukamara) at CHI 24. 39-E.Jackson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – CHI 13
- Q2 03:23 FG CAR (3:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – CHI 14
- Q2 01:14 FG CHI (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CAR 3 – CHI 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 16 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to CHI 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 29 for 6 yards (42-C.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(6:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CAR 4th & 16 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(4:01) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to CHI 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 32 for 6 yards (55-D.Mayo).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 16 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 61%
(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-K.Short), Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 90%
(3:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%
(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(13:51) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 60 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 24 for 10 yards (58-J.Anderson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 81%
(6:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right tackle to CHI 24 for 1 yard (91-E.Goldman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(5:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 48 for 18 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson). PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 38Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 49%
(13:28) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-96-A.Hicks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(11:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 66 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-15-J.Bellamy.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 60%
(9:52) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to CHI 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-K.Seymour.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(7:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 36 for 7 yards (58-J.Anderson).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 46 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 28%
(4:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to CAR 11, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 91 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:44) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to CHI 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
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