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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 3 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(9:52) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to CHI 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-K.Seymour.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.56 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP