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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 34

Chicago Bears 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-K.Short), Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.91 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model