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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 3 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(6:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right tackle to CHI 24 for 1 yard (91-E.Goldman).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.41 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model