Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 80

Chicago Bears 17 – Carolina Panthers 3

(7:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 36 for 7 yards (58-J.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.20 EP
57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model