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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 18

Carolina Panthers 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(3:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.10 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 18, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model