Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 71

Chicago Bears 17 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 48 for 18 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson). PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model