Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to CHI 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 29 for 6 yards (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.83 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 81, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model