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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Thursday 2017-10-12 · 20:25 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

PHI
46.9%
CAR
53.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR): -0.014 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 21
–
CAR 23
Projected margin: CAR by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PHI

Ronald Darby CB Out Ankle
Lane Johnson T Out Concussion
Wendell Smallwood RB Questionable Knee
Fletcher Cox DT Questionable Calf
Jaylen Watkins S Questionable Hamstring
Beau Allen DT Questionable Foot
Chris Long DE Questionable Foot
Destiny Vaeao DT Questionable Wrist

CAR

Kurt Coleman S Out Knee
Demetrious Cox S Out Ankle
Ryan Kalil C Out Neck

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 28
–
CAR 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:02 FG PHI (7:02) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – CAR 0
  • Q1 02:20 FG CAR (2:20) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. PHI 3 – CAR 3
  • Q2 10:41 TD CAR (10:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – CAR 9
  • Q2 02:37 TD PHI (2:37) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – CAR 10
  • Q3 14:04 TD PHI (14:04) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 86-Z.Ertz for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – CAR 10
  • Q3 11:24 FG CAR (11:24) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. PHI 18 – CAR 13
  • Q3 08:08 FG PHI (8:08) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 21 – CAR 13
  • Q3 03:28 FG CAR (3:28) 9-G.Gano 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. PHI 21 – CAR 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-N.Agholor for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – CAR 16
  • Q4 08:07 TD CAR (8:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Taylor Moton reports as eligible PHI 28 – CAR 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 22%

    (12:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to PHI 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 71%

    (7:02) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 89%

    (2:20) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:02) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to PHI 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, recovered by PHI-21-P.Robinson at PHI 11. 21-P.Robinson to PHI 11 for no gain (26-D.Worley).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:48) 8-D.Jones punts 59 yards to CAR 32, Center-45-R.Lovato. 22-C.McCaffrey to PHI 43 for 25 yards (42-C.Maragos; 54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:57) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to CAR 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (4:26) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CAR 1 for 2 yards (95-Ch.Johnson; 98-S.Lotulelei).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 40
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 51%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 84-E.Dickson (24-C.Graham).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (11:24) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 75%

    (8:08) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to PHI 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:14) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to CAR 34, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 77%

    (3:28) 9-G.Gano 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:58) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to CAR 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 23 for 10 yards (45-R.Lovato). PHI-42-C.Maragos was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 38%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at PHI 41 for 4 yards (95-M.Kendricks).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:13) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to CAR 31, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill. PHI-10-M.Hollins was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 31%

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 22-C.McCaffrey.