Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Carolina Panthers 23

(2:13) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to CAR 31, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill. PHI-10-M.Hollins was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.46 EP
59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model