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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 84-E.Dickson (24-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.49 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP