4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 91

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 8-D.Jones punts 59 yards to CAR 32, Center-45-R.Lovato. 22-C.McCaffrey to PHI 43 for 25 yards (42-C.Maragos; 54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -3.46 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 48, worth -3.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model