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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at PHI 41 for 4 yards (95-M.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.65 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model