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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to PHI 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, recovered by PHI-21-P.Robinson at PHI 11. 21-P.Robinson to PHI 11 for no gain (26-D.Worley).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP